Single-Constituency Counties: How Lamu, Isiolo, and Tana River Voted

When the national media covers Kenyan elections, the spotlight falls on Nairobi's 2.4 million voters, Kiambu's 1.3 million, or Kakamega's 940,000. But Kenya's smallest counties — where the total electorate wouldn't fill a Nairobi suburb — have their own fascinating political dynamics. And because the margins are so thin, every vote genuinely matters.

Lamu, Isiolo, and Tana River are among Kenya's smallest counties by registered voter population. Together, they have roughly 252,000 registered voters — about 10% of Nairobi's electorate. But their elections are often more competitive, more unpredictable, and more locally driven than those in larger counties.

Lamu: Kenya's Smallest Electorate

With just 53,000 registered voters, Lamu County is Kenya's smallest electorate. The county has two constituencies — Lamu East and Lamu West — and a political landscape shaped by the historical divide between indigenous coastal Swahili families and "upcountry" settlers who arrived through farming schemes in the 1960s-80s.

The 2022 presidential results in Lamu went 56.8% for Ruto and 40.1% for Raila. This was a significant shift from 2017, when Uhuru carried the county at 57.8%. The continuity of the Kenya Kwanza vote in Lamu reflects the strength of upcountry settler communities — particularly Kikuyu and Meru farmers in Lamu West — who aligned with Ruto's coalition.

The governor's race was won by Issa Timamy (PAA/Kenya Kwanza), who had also been governor previously. In a county this small, name recognition and family networks are everything — formal party structures matter less than personal relationships.

The most striking feature of Lamu's election was the turnout: 62.4% — significantly higher than the national average and much higher than nearby Mombasa (43.2%). In a county where nearly everyone knows their candidates personally, voter motivation is different.

Isiolo: Where Three Communities Meet

Isiolo County has approximately 77,000 registered voters and two constituencies — Isiolo North and Isiolo South. Politically, the county is shaped by the intersection of three main communities: the Borana, the Meru (from neighbouring Meru County), and the Somali (from Wajir and Garissa).

The 2022 presidential results were 51.2% Ruto and 47.1% Raila — one of the tightest splits in Kenya, with Ruto winning by just 3,100 votes. This razor-thin margin reflected the ethnic arithmetic: Meru voters (concentrated in Isiolo South) went heavily for Ruto, while Borana voters (in Isiolo North) leaned toward Raila.

The governor's race produced an upset. Mohamed Abdi Guyo (Kenya Kwanza) defeated incumbent Mohamed Kuti in a contest that centred on service delivery and resource allocation between the county's northern and southern halves. Kuti had been a Jubilee governor who shifted to Azimio — and, like many who made that shift, paid the price.

Isiolo's political significance extends beyond its size. The county is the gateway to northern Kenya, home to the planned LAPSSET corridor, and a testing ground for how multi-ethnic, multi-faith communities negotiate power. The 2022 results showed that none of the three main communities can dominate alone — coalition-building is required.

Tana River: The Bridge Between Coast and North Eastern

Tana River County has approximately 122,000 registered voters and three constituencies — Garsen, Galole, and Bura. The county sits at the boundary of the Coast and North Eastern regions, and its politics reflect the Pokomo-Orma rivalry that has shaped the area for generations.

The 2022 presidential results went 50.2% Ruto and 47.3% Raila — another razor-thin margin. The county had been in Uhuru's column in 2017 (at 54.3%), so the shift to a near-even split represented genuine political movement.

The governor's race was won by Dado Godhana (Kenya Kwanza), replacing the outgoing ODM governor. The clan dynamics in Tana River mean that the governor's seat typically rotates between Pokomo and Orma communities — a delicate arrangement that maintains peace but also constrains political competition.

Tana River's challenges mirror those of northern counties: vast distances, low voter density, and persistent insecurity. The county's 168 polling stations serve an area of 38,000 square kilometres — one station per 226 sq km. For comparison, Nairobi has one station per 0.14 sq km.

What Small Counties Teach Us About Elections

Lamu, Isiolo, and Tana River are easy to dismiss as electoral footnotes. Together, they delivered only about 150,000 valid presidential votes — less than 1.1% of the national total. But they offer several lessons that larger counties often obscure:

• Every vote counts — literally. In Isiolo, the presidential margin was 3,100 votes. At the governor and MP level, margins of a few hundred votes are common. There is no such thing as a "safe" seat in a small county
• Ethnic arithmetic is more visible. In large counties, the complexity of voting patterns can be hidden in aggregate numbers. In small counties, you can trace results to specific communities and see exactly how coalition-building works (or doesn't)
• Turnout variation is extreme. Lamu's 62.4% versus Tana River's 48.1% shows that even adjacent counties with similar demographics can have radically different participation rates
• Local issues dominate. National narratives — "hustler vs dynasty," "Azimio vs Kenya Kwanza" — matter, but they're filtered through hyper-local concerns about water, roads, grazing rights, and security

2027 Outlook for Small Counties

For 2027, these counties will be shaped by three factors. First, the IEBC's voter registration drive could significantly expand the electorate — Isiolo alone is targeted for 15,000 new registrations. Second, devolution continues to raise the stakes of county-level elections, making governor races as competitive as parliamentary ones. Third, with the national political landscape reshuffled by Raila's death and Gachagua's impeachment, the ethnic coalitions that drove 2022 results may not hold.

In a country of 22 million registered voters, it's easy to overlook counties with 53,000 or 77,000. But democracy happens at the margins — and in Kenya's smallest counties, the margins are where everything is decided.

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