How Valid Votes Varied by Position in 2013: The Down-Ballot Drop-Off

Kenyans voted for President, then some just... stopped. 164,030 fewer valid votes were cast for MCA than for President. The "down-ballot drop-off" is one of the most underreported patterns in Kenya's elections.

On March 4, 2013, Kenyan voters walked into polling stations and received six separate ballot papers. This was unprecedented. The 2010 Constitution created new positions — Governor, Senator, Women Representative, and County Assembly Ward Representative — on top of the existing President and Member of Parliament races.

The result? Not everyone made it through all six ballots. And the data proves it.

The Numbers: Position by Position

The IEBC's official report recorded valid votes for each position:

The pattern is clear. The presidential ballot attracted the most valid votes. Each subsequent position lost more. By the MCA level, 164,030 voters who cast a valid presidential vote either skipped the MCA ballot, spoiled it, or left it blank.

Why the Drop-Off Happens

Several factors explain the down-ballot decline:

1. Voter fatigue: Six ballots is a lot. In 2013, this was Kenya's first election with all six positions on the same day. Voters were not used to it. Some ran out of patience by ballot five or six.
2. Awareness gap: While everyone knew the presidential candidates, many voters were less familiar with MCA or Women Representative candidates. Less knowledge leads to more spoiled ballots or skipped races.
3. Complexity: The sheer number of candidates at the MCA level was staggering. With 1,450 wards and multiple candidates per ward, finding the right name on a crowded ballot paper was harder than checking one of eight presidential candidates.
4. Rejected ballots: Some of the drop-off was caused by ballots being rejected at the lower levels at higher rates. Marking errors were more common on unfamiliar ballot papers.

The Variance Pattern: A Steady Decline

The drop-off was not random. It followed a consistent downward slope. Each position lost progressively more votes compared to the presidential baseline.

The gap between President and MP was only 26,491 — the smallest drop. This makes sense. The MP is the most recognized position after President. Most voters know their MP candidate.

The jump from MP to Governor was larger: 58,320 total variance from presidential. Governors were a brand-new position in 2013. Despite being the most powerful county-level role, voters were still learning what a governor does.

The biggest single jump was from Women Representative to MCA — a further 44,545 votes lost. The MCA ballot was the last one voters handled, and ward-level candidates had the least name recognition.

What This Means for Candidates

Down-ballot drop-off has real political consequences:

• MCA races are decided by smaller electorates. With 164,030 fewer valid votes at the MCA level, ward races are essentially contested among a smaller pool. This gives well-organized grassroots campaigns a bigger advantage.
• Voter education matters. Candidates further down the ballot benefit most from voter education campaigns. If voters know who they are before entering the booth, they are more likely to mark the ballot correctly.
• Spoiled ballots are a bigger factor. Some of the 164,030 "lost" votes were not skipped — they were rejected. Training voters on how to properly mark six ballots reduces waste.

Comparison to Later Elections

The 2013 down-ballot pattern set a baseline. By 2017 and 2022, voter education improved and the gap narrowed somewhat. But the fundamental pattern persisted: presidential races always attract the most valid votes, and MCA races attract the fewest.

For more on how the 2013 presidential race nearly went to a runoff, see our county-by-county analysis. Also read about how rejected ballots have changed across election cycles.

What This Pattern Means for 2027

Historical election numbers are most useful when they are turned into field actions. For How Valid Votes Varied by Position in 2013: The Down-Ballot Drop-Off, your campaign can use this history to decide where to invest agents, transport, and voter mobilisation before election day.

• Set target turnout by ward: Use past turnout as your baseline, then assign a realistic uplift target for each ward and polling centre.
• Track strongholds hour by hour: If turnout in your core areas is below plan by midday, deploy rapid mobilisation teams early, not late.
• Protect evidence quality: Keep a clean chain of results forms, incident notes, and station-level logs to support legal review if needed.

For primary reference material, review the IEBC official resources, Kenya Law election jurisprudence, and the IEBC election regulations.

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