Governor Races 2022: 15 Counties Where the Winner Got Less Than 55%

Fifteen governor races in 2022 were decided by margins of less than 55% — knife-edge contests where a few thousand votes separated the winner from the loser. In a country where the governor controls the county's multi-billion shilling budget, these were the races where every vote truly counted.

Unlike the presidential race, where ethnic geography largely determines outcomes in most counties, governor races are intensely local. They pit local elites against each other, fracture ethnic blocs, and produce the most unpredictable outcomes in Kenyan elections. The 15 close races of 2022 tell a story of grassroots competition that national coverage largely missed.

The 15 Closest Governor Races

Here are the 2022 governor races where the winner received less than 55% of valid votes, ranked by margin:

1. Mombasa: Abdulswamad Nassir (ODM) — 50.77% vs Mike Sonko (Wiper) 42.31%. Margin: ~19,300
2. Kakamega: Fernandes Barasa (ODM) — 56.91% vs Cleophas Malala (ANC) 40.83%. Margin: ~65,000
3. Kilifi: Gideon Mung'aro (ODM) — 50.3% vs Aisha Jumwa (UDA) 32.8%. Multi-candidate split.
4. Nairobi: Johnson Sakaja (UDA) — 52.43% vs Polycarp Igathe (Azimio) 46.55%. Margin: ~38,000
5. Machakos: Wavinya Ndeti (Wiper) — 51.02% vs Nzioka Waita (UDA) 36.17%. Multi-candidate field.
6. Bungoma: Ken Lusaka (Ford-Kenya) — 51.89% vs several challengers.
7. Kiambu: Kimani Wamatangi (UDA) — 52.98% vs several challengers.
8. Laikipia: Joshua Irungu (UDA) — 51.84% vs Ndiritu Muriithi (Jubilee) 40.56%. Margin: ~15,200
9. Tana River: Dhadho Godhana (ODM) — 50.96% vs several challengers. Margin: ~2,500
10. Isiolo: Abdi Guyo (UDA) — 52.1% vs Mohamed Kuti (Jubilee) 42.3%. Margin: ~3,400
11. Samburu: Jonathan Lelelit (UDA) — 53.2% vs several challengers.
12. Marsabit: Mohamud Ali (UDA) — 50.4% vs several challengers. Margin: ~4,100
13. Kwale: Fatuma Achani (UDA) — 51.2% vs Lung'anzi Chai (ODM) ~40%. History-making as first elected female governor in Coast.
14. Nakuru: Susan Kihika (UDA) — 53.21% vs Lee Kinyanjui (Jubilee) 45.16%. Margin: ~56,000
15. Trans Nzoia: George Natembeya (DAP-K) — 54.26% vs Chris Wamalwa (Ford-Kenya) 38.42%.

Common Patterns in Close Races

Analyzing these 15 races reveals several patterns:

1. Multi-ethnic counties produce close races. Counties with no single dominant ethnic group — Nairobi, Nakuru, Laikipia, Mombasa, Trans Nzoia — consistently produce competitive governor races. The ethnic arithmetic doesn't guarantee a winner, so campaigns must build cross-ethnic coalitions.

2. Incumbent governors often lost. Of the 15 closest races, several involved incumbent governors losing re-election bids. Lee Kinyanjui lost Nakuru, Ndiritu Muriithi lost Laikipia, and Mohamed Kuti lost Isiolo. Gubernatorial incumbency, like MCA incumbency, is increasingly a liability.

3. National party brands didn't always dominate. In several of these races, the winner ran against the national trend. Mombasa, Kilifi, and Kwale are in Coast region where both UDA and Azimio had competing interests — and the results didn't always align with the presidential vote in the same county.

4. Multi-candidate fields create chaos. In Kilifi, Machakos, and Bungoma, fields of 4-6 serious candidates meant that the winner could prevail with barely 50% of the vote while the opposition was split among multiple challengers.

The Budget Stakes

These aren't just political races — they're contests over enormous resources. Each county government controls an annual budget of KES 5-15 billion (USD 35-105 million). The governor has significant discretion over procurement, hiring, and development priorities. In close races, the difference between winning and losing is measured in thousands of jobs and billions of shillings.

This is why governor races generate more violence, more litigation, and more intense voter mobilization than any other race except the presidency. In 2022, 11 governor results were challenged in court — and most of those challenges came from the 15 closest races listed above.

The Petition Factor

After the 2022 election, election petitions were filed in Mombasa, Kakamega, Laikipia, Isiolo, Marsabit, and several other counties from this list. The High Court ultimately upheld most results, but the petitions themselves — and the uncertainty they create — demonstrate how fragile legitimacy is when margins are this thin.

In Tana River, where the margin was roughly 2,500 votes, the losing candidate's petition alleged irregularities at specific polling stations. When your entire margin of victory comes from a handful of stations, every questioned result matters.

What Close Races Mean for 2027

The 15 close-margin counties of 2022 are the governor battlegrounds of 2027. In counties where the incumbent won with less than 55%, the opposition has a realistic path to victory with even modest vote gains. Key factors to watch:

• Nairobi: Governor Sakaja's performance record will be scrutinized. His 52.43% leaves almost no margin for error.
• Mombasa: Governor Nassir's slim 50.77% means any competent challenger could make it a coin flip.
• Nakuru: Governor Kihika won 53.21% in a county that was supposed to be a UDA stronghold — suggesting underlying vulnerability.
• Northern counties (Isiolo, Marsabit, Tana River): These tiny-margin races in small-electorate counties are uniquely volatile. A single clan dispute can swing the result.

The lesson from 2022's governor races is that Kenyan democracy is most competitive — and most fragile — at the county level. The closer the race, the higher the stakes, and the greater the need for transparent, verifiable tallying.

When governor races come down to 2,500 votes, every polling station matters. Votrack tracks governor results from every station in real time, letting you see margin changes as they happen. Book your demo today.