2022 vs 2017: How the Political Map Changed

Between 2017 and 2022, at least 7 counties flipped their presidential allegiance. Mt. Kenya shrank by 15-20 points. The Rift Valley held firm. Western Kenya split. The North East swung hard. Here is the full map of what changed.

On the surface, the 2017 and 2022 elections look similar. Both pitted a Rift Valley candidate against Raila Odinga. Both were won by the Rift Valley candidate. Both resulted in Odinga petitioning the Supreme Court. But beneath those surface similarities, the electoral map changed significantly.

The 2017 election saw Uhuru Kenyatta win with 8,203,290 votes (54.27%) against Odinga's 6,762,224 (44.74%), a margin of 1,441,066 votes. The 2022 election saw Ruto win with 7,176,141 (50.49%) against Odinga's 6,942,930 (48.85%), a margin of just 233,211 votes.

The national margin shrank by over 1.2 million votes. The winning candidate's vote share dropped from 54.27% to 50.49%, a decline of 3.78 percentage points. And the losing candidate's vote share actually increased from 44.74% to 48.85%. The election got much closer.

The Side-by-Side: Biggest Vote Share Changes

The chart shows the counties with the largest changes in the winning candidate's vote share between elections. The biggest swings occurred in:

Counties that swung toward Odinga/away from the Kenyatta/Ruto side:

• Mandera: Kenyatta 82.9% (2017) to Ruto 20.9% (2022). This is the largest swing in the country, with the county completely flipping from overwhelming Jubilee support to overwhelming Azimio support.
• Nyandarua: Kenyatta 99.0% to Ruto 78.8% (-20.2pp for the Jubilee/KK side)
• Kiambu: Kenyatta 92.6% to Ruto 73.5% (-19.1pp)
• Nairobi: Flipped from Kenyatta 48.6% to Odinga 57.3%
• Kajiado: Kenyatta 57.2% to Odinga 51.4% (flipped)

Counties that swung toward Ruto:

• Bungoma: Odinga 68.0% (2017) to Ruto 63.2% (2022). Complete flip driven by Mudavadi's ANC alliance.
• Bomet: Kenyatta 87.1% to Ruto 95.3% (+8.2pp). The Rift Valley actually strengthened.
• Kericho: Kenyatta 92.8% to Ruto 95.3% (+2.5pp).

Comparison Table: Key Metrics

The comparison across key metrics shows how the overall election changed:

• Registered voters: +2.5 million (19.6M to 22.1M)
• Valid votes cast: -901,485 (15.1M to 14.2M)
• Turnout: -13pp (78% to 65%)
• Winner's margin: -1,207,855 votes (1.44M to 0.23M)
• Polling stations: +5,346 (40,883 to 46,229)
• Candidates: 8 in 2017 to 4 in 2022

The most striking figure is that fewer valid votes were cast in 2022 than 2017, despite 2.5 million more registered voters. This means roughly 3.4 million additional registered voters either did not show up or had their ballots rejected. The turnout collapse was real and widespread, hitting urban and coastal counties hardest.

The Regional Shifts

Looking at regional shifts between the two elections:

Mt. Kenya (6 counties): The incumbent/ally side dropped from ~97% average to ~81% average. The net vote advantage from the region dropped by roughly 1.17 million votes. Odinga's vote in the region quintupled. This was the single biggest change on the map.

Rift Valley (12 counties): The Kalenjin heartland actually consolidated. Counties like Bomet and Kericho gave Ruto higher percentages than they gave Kenyatta. Ruto improved on Kenyatta's performance in his own ethnic base. West Pokot and the Maa counties were the exceptions.

Western (4 counties): Bungoma's flip was the headline. Kakamega, Vihiga, and Busia stayed with Odinga but with reduced margins. The Luhya community's political unity fractured, with Mudavadi's ANC taking part of the vote to Kenya Kwanza.

North Eastern (3 counties): All three counties swung toward Odinga, with Mandera showing the most dramatic reversal. Clan-level political realignments drove these shifts.

Luo Nyanza (4 counties): Virtually unchanged. Odinga's bastion held at 97-99% in all four counties. These are the most stable strongholds in Kenyan politics.

Coast (6 counties): Odinga improved slightly in most Coast counties but margins remained moderate. The Coast showed the least dramatic changes of any region.

For detailed analysis of specific regions, see our Mt. Kenya analysis on how the bloc shifted, the Maa counties spotlight, and the Wajir analysis.

The IEBC's Post-Election Evaluation noted that the 2022 map showed a more competitive election than 2017, with more counties falling in the 40-60% range for both candidates. Kenya Law records show that the 2022 Supreme Court petition was dismissed, with the court finding that the result reflected the will of the people despite the split IEBC commission.

The map changes every election. Your data should capture it. Votrack provides real-time parallel tallying with historical comparison, showing exactly where and how the vote is shifting. Request a demo to overlay 2022 and 2017 data at the polling station level.