2022 County Spotlight: Tana River, Lamu, and the Coast Margins

Tana River: Odinga 54.96%. Lamu: Odinga 52.25%. The Coast's two most competitive counties were decided by fewer than 13,000 votes combined.

The Kenya Coast is typically painted as Odinga territory. Mombasa went 58.08% for Odinga. Kilifi went 71.66%. Taita Taveta went 72.89%. But two Coast counties broke from this pattern and delivered some of the tightest races in the entire 2022 election.

In Tana River, Odinga won 51,390 votes (54.96%) against Ruto's 41,505 (44.39%). The margin was 9,885 votes out of 93,505 valid ballots cast. In Lamu, Odinga took 26,160 votes (52.25%) to Ruto's 22,876 (45.69%). The margin was just 3,284 votes out of 50,070 valid ballots.

These are not the Luo Nyanza-style 98% landslides. These are genuinely competitive races where ground-level organising, voter turnout, and even a few hundred votes at individual polling stations could have changed the outcome.

The Results Side by Side

Tana River had 141,110 registered voters and achieved a turnout of 67.02%, with 93,505 valid votes and 1,068 rejected ballots. Lamu had 81,468 registered voters at 62.55% turnout, producing 50,070 valid votes and 887 rejected ballots.

Both counties are small by Kenyan standards. Tana River is physically vast but sparsely populated, stretching from the Tana River delta on the coast inland to the dry pastoral areas bordering Kitui and Garissa. Lamu is Kenya's smallest county by population, with an island-based economy centred on tourism and fishing, plus the growing Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor development.

What makes these counties competitive is their ethnic diversity. Tana River has significant Orma, Pokomo, and Wardei populations, each with different political alignments. Lamu has Bajuni, Swahili, Boni, and migrant communities from upcountry. Unlike Mombasa or Kilifi, where the Mijikenda vote overwhelmingly for one candidate, these counties have cross-cutting identities that produce genuine competition.

Coast Region Context: Where Do Tana River and Lamu Fit?

The chart above shows the Coast region as a whole. The six Coast counties display a gradient from Odinga strongholds to competitive territory:

• Taita Taveta: Odinga 72.89% (margin: 52,123 votes)
• Kilifi: Odinga 71.66% (margin: 127,205 votes)
• Kwale: Odinga 70.12% (margin: 73,623 votes)
• Mombasa: Odinga 58.08% (margin: 47,315 votes)
• Tana River: Odinga 54.96% (margin: 9,885 votes)
• Lamu: Odinga 52.25% (margin: 3,284 votes)

The combined Coast gave Odinga approximately 650,000 votes more than Ruto. But over 75% of that advantage came from Kilifi, Kwale, and Taita Taveta. Tana River and Lamu contributed modestly, and a swing of about 6,600 voters combined would have flipped both counties to Ruto.

In 2017, the pattern was different. Lamu went to Kenyatta with 23,905 votes (48.58%) against Odinga's 24,421 (49.62%), an incredibly tight race that Odinga won by just 516 votes. Tana River gave Kenyatta 40,115 (46.15%) and Odinga 45,067 (51.85%). So Odinga improved his margin in both counties from 2017 to 2022, but not dramatically.

Historical Patterns and 2017 Comparison

The historical comparison shows that both counties have been competitive across multiple elections, unlike the Odinga strongholds in Luo Nyanza or the Ruto/Kenyatta bastions in the Rift Valley and Mt. Kenya. This makes them strategically important for any coalition seeking to build a national majority.

Tana River's competitiveness stems from its location at the intersection of the Coast, North Eastern, and Eastern regions. The county's politics are shaped by land disputes between pastoralist and farming communities, access to water resources, and the influence of local political dynasties. The IEBC's 2017 network coverage data showed that Tana River had only 174 of 307 polling stations (56.7%) covered by 3G/4G, with 66 stations having zero coverage. Election logistics in this county are among the most challenging in Kenya.

Lamu's politics are shaped by the LAPSSET corridor project, which has brought both development opportunities and land displacement concerns. The county also faces security challenges related to the Al-Shabaab threat from neighbouring Somalia. These factors create a political environment where national party allegiances take a back seat to local economic and security concerns.

According to Kenya Law records, both counties have seen election petitions in previous cycles, with challenges centred on voter register accuracy in remote areas and the logistics of vote counting in hard-to-reach polling stations.

What This Means for 2027

For political strategists, Tana River and Lamu present a clear opportunity. These are counties where a targeted investment in voter mobilisation could swing the result. The margins are small enough that a few hundred additional agents, better voter education, or improved turnout could change the outcome.

The Coast region as a whole delivered roughly 650,000 net votes for Odinga. But if Ruto's coalition could flip Tana River and Lamu while narrowing the margins in Mombasa, that advantage could be halved. Conversely, if Odinga's successor builds on the Coast base and pushes Tana River and Lamu into comfortable margins, the Coast becomes an even more reliable bloc.

For the national picture of the closest 2022 races, see our analysis of the presidential result.

Remote counties need reliable data systems. Votrack works via USSD, Telegram, and web, ensuring that agents in Tana River's delta and Lamu's islands can report results from wherever they are. Request a demo for 2027.