Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

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Showing 193-204 of 207 posts

Nakuru 2022: The Swing County That Swung Hard for Kenya Kwanza
Nakuru 2022: The Swing County That Swung Hard for Kenya Kwanza

Nakuru County, Kenya's third-largest electorate with over 1.1 million registered voters, was considered the ultimate swi...

Oct 18, 2022 5 min 11,095
Kisumu's 98% Loyalty: Inside Kenya's Most Predictable Stronghold
Kisumu's 98% Loyalty: Inside Kenya's Most Predictable Stronghold

Kisumu gave Raila Odinga 97.5% of the presidential vote in 2022 — almost identical to 2017 and 2013. What drives this ex...

Oct 18, 2022 3 min 4,375
Rejected Ballots in 2022: 246,000 Votes That Never Counted
Rejected Ballots in 2022: 246,000 Votes That Never Counted

In an election decided by 233,211 votes, the 246,232 rejected presidential ballots represent a democratic tragedy. Who w...

Oct 18, 2022 4 min 4,874
Rural vs Urban: How City Voters and Village Voters Split in 2022
Rural vs Urban: How City Voters and Village Voters Split in 2022

City voters and rural voters didn't just pick different candidates in 2022 — they showed up at dramatically different ra...

Oct 05, 2022 3 min 10,785
William Ruto's Hustler Narrative: How a Campaign Slogan Became a Movement
William Ruto's Hustler Narrative: How a Campaign Slogan Became a Movement

The 'hustler vs dynasty' framing was dismissed by pundits as populist nonsense. But Ruto's bottom-up economic model reso...

Oct 05, 2022 4 min 3,545
Voter Turnout Crisis: Why 5 Million Registered Voters Stayed Home in 2022
Voter Turnout Crisis: Why 5 Million Registered Voters Stayed Home in 2022

Kenya's 2022 voter turnout of 65.4% marked a troubling decline from 2013's 85.9%. Nearly 8 million registered voters sta...

Oct 02, 2022 3 min 8,571
How UDA Swept the Rift Valley: A Ward-Level Analysis
How UDA Swept the Rift Valley: A Ward-Level Analysis

William Ruto's UDA party won every single gubernatorial race in the Rift Valley, swept parliamentary seats, and delivere...

Sep 28, 2022 4 min 9,764
Presidential Results by Constituency: A Granular Look at 2022
Presidential Results by Constituency: A Granular Look at 2022

Breaking down the 2022 presidential results across all 290 constituencies reveals patterns hidden in county-level data....

Sep 22, 2022 5 min 615
Martha Karua Effect: Did She Move Votes in Central Kenya?
Martha Karua Effect: Did She Move Votes in Central Kenya?

When Raila Odinga picked Martha Karua as his running mate, it was hailed as a masterstroke. A respected Kikuyu woman fro...

Sep 20, 2022 4 min 7,837
How Kenya Kwanza Built a Winning Coalition: Lessons in Alliance Arithmetic
How Kenya Kwanza Built a Winning Coalition: Lessons in Alliance Arithmetic

Kenya Kwanza brought together UDA, ANC, Ford-Kenya, and smaller parties into a coalition that covered every region and c...

Sep 18, 2022 4 min 7,879
Election Night Timeline: A Minute-by-Minute Account of August 9, 2022
Election Night Timeline: A Minute-by-Minute Account of August 9, 2022

From the moment polls closed at 5pm on August 9, 2022, Kenya entered a 96-hour limbo. The IEBC's results transmission sy...

Sep 15, 2022 6 min 10,660
Mombasa 2022: How Abdulswamad Nassir Reclaimed the Coast for ODM
Mombasa 2022: How Abdulswamad Nassir Reclaimed the Coast for ODM

After years of Joho's tenure and growing disillusionment, Mombasa's 2022 governor race saw Abdulswamad Nassir reclaim th...

Sep 14, 2022 4 min 7,969