Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

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Showing 157-168 of 174 posts

Azimio's Stronghold Paradox: Winning Counties but Losing the Election
Azimio's Stronghold Paradox: Winning Counties but Losing the Election

Raila Odinga's Azimio coalition won 22 of 47 counties in the presidential race. Kenya Kwanza won 25. But the real story...

Oct 25, 2022 3 min 8,378
The Rift Valley Machine: How UDA Won 90%+ in 14 Counties
The Rift Valley Machine: How UDA Won 90%+ in 14 Counties

UDA swept the Rift Valley with staggering margins in 2022 — 14 counties above 90%, five above 95%. The Kalenjin heartlan...

Oct 25, 2022 4 min 10,476
Governor Sakaja vs Igathe: The Most Expensive City Campaign in Kenyan History
Governor Sakaja vs Igathe: The Most Expensive City Campaign in Kenyan History

The 2022 Nairobi governor race between Johnson Sakaja (Kenya Kwanza) and Polycarp Igathe (Azimio) was the most expensive...

Oct 18, 2022 6 min 6,956
Rejected Ballots in 2022: 246,000 Votes That Never Counted
Rejected Ballots in 2022: 246,000 Votes That Never Counted

In an election decided by 233,211 votes, the 246,232 rejected presidential ballots represent a democratic tragedy. Who w...

Oct 18, 2022 4 min 10,727
Nakuru 2022: The Swing County That Swung Hard for Kenya Kwanza
Nakuru 2022: The Swing County That Swung Hard for Kenya Kwanza

Nakuru County, Kenya's third-largest electorate with over 1.1 million registered voters, was considered the ultimate swi...

Oct 18, 2022 5 min 8,258
Kisumu's 98% Loyalty: Inside Kenya's Most Predictable Stronghold
Kisumu's 98% Loyalty: Inside Kenya's Most Predictable Stronghold

Kisumu gave Raila Odinga 97.5% of the presidential vote in 2022 — almost identical to 2017 and 2013. What drives this ex...

Oct 18, 2022 3 min 2,259
Rural vs Urban: How City Voters and Village Voters Split in 2022
Rural vs Urban: How City Voters and Village Voters Split in 2022

City voters and rural voters didn't just pick different candidates in 2022 — they showed up at dramatically different ra...

Oct 05, 2022 3 min 7,629
William Ruto's Hustler Narrative: How a Campaign Slogan Became a Movement
William Ruto's Hustler Narrative: How a Campaign Slogan Became a Movement

The 'hustler vs dynasty' framing was dismissed by pundits as populist nonsense. But Ruto's bottom-up economic model reso...

Oct 05, 2022 4 min 10,602
Voter Turnout Crisis: Why 5 Million Registered Voters Stayed Home in 2022
Voter Turnout Crisis: Why 5 Million Registered Voters Stayed Home in 2022

Kenya's 2022 voter turnout of 65.4% marked a troubling decline from 2013's 85.9%. Nearly 8 million registered voters sta...

Oct 02, 2022 3 min 11,509
How UDA Swept the Rift Valley: A Ward-Level Analysis
How UDA Swept the Rift Valley: A Ward-Level Analysis

William Ruto's UDA party won every single gubernatorial race in the Rift Valley, swept parliamentary seats, and delivere...

Sep 28, 2022 4 min 4,706
Presidential Results by Constituency: A Granular Look at 2022
Presidential Results by Constituency: A Granular Look at 2022

Breaking down the 2022 presidential results across all 290 constituencies reveals patterns hidden in county-level data....

Sep 22, 2022 5 min 8,057
Martha Karua Effect: Did She Move Votes in Central Kenya?
Martha Karua Effect: Did She Move Votes in Central Kenya?

When Raila Odinga picked Martha Karua as his running mate, it was hailed as a masterstroke. A respected Kikuyu woman fro...

Sep 20, 2022 4 min 1,550