The Youth Candidate Wave: Under-35s Who Ran for MCA in 2022

The Member of County Assembly (MCA) race is Kenya's most accessible elected position. With 1,450 wards across 47 counties, it's where aspiring politicians cut their teeth. In 2022, a significant number of candidates under 35 entered MCA races — part of a broader "youth wave" driven by demographics (75% of Kenya's population is under 35) and frustration with an aging political class.

The Numbers: How Many Young Candidates Ran?

IEBC data shows that approximately 4,200 candidates aged 18-35 registered to contest MCA seats in the August 2022 general election, out of a total of roughly 12,800 MCA candidates nationwide. That's approximately one-third of all MCA candidates.

However, the success rate was sobering:

• Candidates under 35: ~4,200
• Winners under 35: ~187 (approximately 12.9% of all 1,450 elected MCAs)
• Success rate: 4.5% of young candidates won
• By comparison: Candidates over 35 had a success rate of approximately 12.1%

Young candidates were nearly three times less likely to win than their older counterparts.

Why Young Candidates Lose

The barriers are structural, not generational:

• Money: An MCA campaign in Kenya costs between KES 2-10 million (roughly $15,000-75,000). Most under-35 candidates lack access to these funds. Incumbents have five years of constituency development fund (CDF) relationships and business networks to draw on.
• Party nominations: The party primary system is dominated by delegates and local officials who favor established candidates. Young candidates report being asked for "facilitation fees" ranging from KES 200,000 to KES 2 million to secure favorable primary outcomes.
• Incumbency advantage: Approximately 58% of incumbent MCAs who sought re-election in 2022 succeeded. They had name recognition, established patron-client networks, and control of local development resources.
• Gender compounding: Young women candidates faced double disadvantage. Of the ~4,200 young candidates, only about 890 (21%) were women, and their success rate was even lower — approximately 2.8%.

Where Young Candidates Won

The ~187 young MCAs who won tended to share certain characteristics:

• Party ticket: Nearly all won on major party tickets (UDA, ODM, Jubilee) rather than as independents. The party brand was essential.
• Urban wards: Young candidates performed better in urban wards where traditional elder-dominated structures are weaker. Nairobi had the highest proportion of under-35 MCAs at approximately 22%.
• Open seats: The vast majority won in wards where the incumbent was not running — either due to term limits (at county assembly level, there are no term limits, but many incumbents "move up" to constituency races) or retirement.
• Social media presence: Winning young candidates were more likely to have active social media campaigns, though this correlated more with urban wards than with a universal strategy advantage.

Case Studies: Young Winners

Several young MCA winners attracted attention:

• In Roysambu Ward, Nairobi, a 27-year-old UDA candidate won against a two-term incumbent by campaigning on waste management and water access — issues the incumbent had neglected.
• In Mwiki Ward, Kasarani, a 29-year-old ODM candidate built a volunteer network of boda boda riders and market women that outmobilized the incumbent's paid agents.
• In Kilifi County, three under-30 MCAs were elected in coastal wards where youth unemployment exceeds 60%, running on platforms centered on fishing rights and tourism employment.

The Independent Route: A Dead End?

Of the ~4,200 young candidates, approximately 1,100 ran as independents — often after losing party primaries. Their success rate was abysmal: fewer than 15 independent candidates under 35 won MCA seats in the entire country. Without a party brand, ground organization, and financing, independent young candidates are essentially protest candidates.

Implications for 2027

The youth candidate wave of 2022 was real in volume but limited in impact. For 2027, the question is whether structural changes — particularly the IEBC's drive to register 6.3 million new voters, predominantly Gen Z — will create a more favorable environment for young candidates. The answer likely depends on whether political parties open their nomination processes or continue to gatekeep youth participation.

Votrack tracks MCA races across all 1,450 wards. Request a demo to explore ward-level results and candidate demographics.