The Political Map Before and After: Kenya's 2017 vs 2022 Results Compared

In August 2017, Uhuru Kenyatta won the presidency with 8,203,290 votes (54.27%) against Raila Odinga's 6,762,224 (44.74%). In August 2022, William Ruto won with 7,176,141 votes (50.49%) against Odinga's 6,942,930 (48.85%). The margin collapsed from 1.44 million votes to just 233,211. But the raw vote totals only tell part of the story. The geographic distribution of support shifted dramatically, reshaping Kenya's political landscape.

The Big Picture

In 2017, Kenyatta's coalition (Jubilee) was built on two pillars: the Kikuyu vote in Central Kenya and the Kalenjin vote in the Rift Valley. Odinga's coalition (NASA) relied on Luo Nyanza, Western Kenya, Coast, and parts of Eastern.

By 2022, the map had been redrawn. Ruto inherited the Rift Valley base but also captured Central Kenya — a remarkable feat given that he was running against the wishes of the outgoing Kikuyu president, Uhuru Kenyatta, who backed Odinga. Meanwhile, Odinga gained some of Kenyatta's 2017 support in certain counties but lost ground in others.

Counties That Flipped

At least 11 counties changed their presidential preference between 2017 and 2022. Here are the most significant swings:

From Kenyatta (2017) to Odinga (2022)

Nairobi: Kenyatta won 49.8% in 2017; Odinga won 57.3% in 2022. The capital swung 7.5 points toward Azimio. This reflected both the Uhuru-Raila handshake effect and the urban voter's frustration with Jubilee governance.

Meru: Kenyatta won overwhelmingly in 2017 (~76%), but Ruto's margin narrowed significantly to approximately 56% in 2022. While Meru didn't fully flip, the swing was notable — driven by local political dynamics and the candidacy of Martha Karua as Odinga's running mate (a Meru native).

Tharaka Nithi: Similar dynamics to Meru. Kenyatta won massively in 2017; Ruto won but by a reduced margin in 2022, with Karua's candidacy providing an Azimio boost.

From Odinga (2017) to Ruto (2022)

Samburu: Odinga narrowly won Samburu in 2017 (52.3%); Ruto flipped it decisively in 2022 (61.5%). The Samburu-Kalenjin ethnic proximity and Ruto's alliance with local leaders drove the swing.

Narok: A Maasai county that leaned Odinga in 2017, Narok moved toward Ruto in 2022 (approximately 54% UDA). Ruto's alliance with then-Governor Samuel Tunai and the deputy president's outreach to Maasai leaders in the Rift Valley were key factors.

Kajiado: Another Maasai county that was closely contested in both elections but shifted from a narrow Odinga lead in 2017 to a narrow Ruto lead in 2022.

The Central Kenya Realignment

The most remarkable story of 2017-to-2022 is Central Kenya's loyalty shift. In 2017, these counties voted 80-90%+ for Kenyatta — a Kikuyu candidate. In 2022, despite Kenyatta actively campaigning for Odinga, the same counties voted 70-85% for Ruto — a Kalenjin.

The percentages dropped from the Kenyatta era because Odinga captured some Kikuyu votes — estimated at 15-25% depending on the county. But Ruto retained 70-85% of the Mt. Kenya vote, a stunning performance for a non-Kikuyu candidate running against the sitting Kikuyu president's endorsement.

The Turnout Factor

Comparing 2017 and 2022 requires accounting for turnout changes. National turnout fell from 78.9% in 2017 to 64.77% in 2022 — a historic drop of 14 percentage points.

The turnout decline was not uniform:

• Nairobi: 72.6% (2017) → 55.96% (2022) — drop of 16.6pp
• Mombasa: 55.7% (2017) → 43.76% (2022) — drop of 12pp
• Kiambu: 80.2% (2017) → 63.6% (2022) — drop of 16.6pp
• Siaya: 85.4% (2017) → 65.8% (2022) — drop of 19.6pp
• Bomet: 85.1% (2017) → 79.9% (2022) — drop of only 5.2pp

The pattern: turnout dropped most sharply in Odinga strongholds (Nyanza, Coast, Nairobi) and in Central Kenya (where voter enthusiasm waned without a co-ethnic candidate). Ruto's Rift Valley base maintained relatively high turnout. This differential turnout was worth tens of thousands of votes in the final margin.

The Swing Constituencies

Looking below the county level, individual constituencies tell even more dramatic stories. Several constituencies swung by 30+ percentage points between 2017 and 2022:

• Kibra (Nairobi): Odinga 77% (2017) → 74% (2022) — minimal change, fortress intact
• Gatundu South (Kiambu): Kenyatta 97.3% (2017) → Ruto 85.1% (2022) — Ruto inherited Kenyatta's home turf
• Aldai (Nandi): Ruto 95.4% (2022) vs Kenyatta 88.9% (2017) — the Kalenjin heartland got even more UDA
• Juja (Kiambu): Kenyatta 86.2% (2017) → Ruto 65.4% (2022) — the biggest swing toward Azimio in Central, driven by Uhuru's influence and the Waititu political network

What Changed — And What Didn't

The 2017-to-2022 comparison reveals both change and continuity:

What changed:

• Central Kenya moved from Jubilee to UDA — same voters, different party, different ethnic leadership
• The Coast became more contested — Odinga's margins narrowed in several counties
• The Somali vote shifted — Wajir and Garissa moved from strongly Kenyatta to split
• Nairobi flipped decisively to Odinga

What didn't change:

• Nyanza remained 85-95% for Odinga — the Luo vote is the most stable bloc in Kenyan politics
• The Kalenjin Rift Valley remained 80-95% for the home candidate (Kenyatta's alliance in 2017, Ruto directly in 2022)
• Western Kenya remained divided along Luhya sub-ethnic lines
• The fundamental pattern of ethnic block voting persisted, despite different coalition configurations

Implications for 2027

The 2017-to-2022 shift proves that Kenya's political map is not fixed. Counties can change allegiance dramatically in five years. The key variables are:

1. Elite alliances: Where county governors and MPs lead, voters often follow. Ruto captured Central Kenya partly by securing alliances with key Kikuyu leaders.
2. Running mate selection: Martha Karua's candidacy as Odinga's running mate moved 15-25% of the Mt. Kenya vote. Running mate choices in 2027 will be equally consequential.
3. Turnout differentials: The party that maintains higher turnout in its strongholds while depressing opponent turnout holds a structural advantage.
4. Generational change: With Raila Odinga's passing in October 2025, the Luo vote faces its first election without Odinga on the ballot in 30+ years. How — and whether — Nyanza's turnout holds will be the defining question of 2027.

Historical data drives future strategy. Votrack's election analytics platform lets you compare every polling station's results across 2013, 2017, and 2022 — and project 2027 scenarios based on demographic and turnout modeling. See what's possible.