In one of the closest parliamentary by-elections in recent memory, UDA's Leo wa Muthende Njeru won the Mbeere North seat with 15,802 votes, beating DP's Newton Kariuki Ndwiga by a razor-thin margin of just 494 votes. The result was so tight that the opposition immediately signaled it would petition the outcome in court.
Final Results
| # | Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LEO WA MUTHENDE NJERU | UDA | 15,802 | 46.5% |
| 2 | NEWTON KARIUKI NDWIGA | DP | 15,308 | 45.1% |
| 3 | DUNCAN IRERI MBUI | CCK | 2,480 | 7.3% |
| 4-9 | Other candidates (6) | Various | ~357 | ~1.1% |
| Total Votes Cast | 33,947 | |||
| Voter Turnout | 61.9% | |||
The Razor's Edge
The 494-vote margin makes this one of the tightest parliamentary contests in Kenyan by-election history. In a constituency with nearly 55,000 registered voters and over 130 polling stations, the outcome was effectively decided by a handful of votes per station.
Mbeere North, located in Embu County, sits in the broader Mt. Kenya region — territory that overwhelmingly backed President Ruto in 2022. That UDA managed only a 46.5% plurality (not even a majority) against a divided opposition field suggests the ruling party's grip on the region was already loosening months before the more dramatic Ol Kalou result in July 2026.
Key Takeaways
- A warning shot for UDA. Winning by 494 votes in a region that delivered 80%+ for Ruto in 2022 was a clear sign of voter discontent — a signal that would be amplified in subsequent by-elections.
- Duncan Mbui's 7.3% was the spoiler. His 2,480 votes likely drew from the same anti-UDA pool as Kariuki, potentially costing the opposition the seat.
- Court petition followed. Opposition leader Kalonzo Musyoka immediately announced plans to challenge the result, citing the slim margin.
All election data sourced from official IEBC Form 35A and Form 35B results published on the IEBC Forms Portal. This analysis is based on the official declaration by the Constituency Returning Officer on 28 November 2025.
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