Independent Candidates: 4,002 Ran in 2017, Only 125 Won

Going independent in Kenya is brave. 4,002 tried it in 2017. Only 3.1% succeeded. But two became governors.

Kenya's 2017 election saw a surge of independent candidates. A total of 4,002 candidates chose to run without any party affiliation — a bold move in a country where political parties dominate elections and control access to campaign resources, voter networks, and media attention.

Of those 4,002 independents, only 125 won their seats. That is a success rate of just 3.1%. But behind that number are some remarkable stories.

The Numbers: Where Independents Ran

Independent candidates appeared at every level of the election, from the presidency down to the ward:

Note: The IEBC data on independent candidates who ran (4,002) and the party results data (which shows 109 MCA independents + 13 MP independents + 2 governor independents + 1 senator + 1 Women Rep = 126 winners) confirm the overall picture. The total elected independents across all positions was approximately 125-126.

The MCA Level: Where Independents Thrive

The overwhelming majority of independent candidates — 3,339 out of 4,002 (83.4%) — ran for MCA positions. This makes sense. Ward races are the most local, most personal, and least dependent on party infrastructure. A well-known community figure can win a ward without a party machine behind them.

Of those 3,339 MCA independents, 109 won — a 3.3% success rate. That made independents the third-largest block in county assemblies, behind Jubilee (582) and ODM (339) but ahead of Wiper (84), ANC (47), and every other party.

The 109 independent MCAs came from counties all across Kenya. They were not concentrated in any single region. Some were party nomination losers who chose to go it alone. Others were established community leaders who never wanted a party affiliation. A few were defectors from parties that refused to give them the ticket.

The MP Level: 513 Ran, 13 Won

At the constituency level, 513 independents vied for MP seats. Only 13 won — a 2.5% success rate. Winning an MP race as an independent is harder than an MCA race because constituencies are larger, campaigns are more expensive, and party structures carry more weight with voters.

The 13 independent MPs proved that it is possible to win without a party. But it requires exceptional name recognition, deep community ties, and significant personal resources. Most of these winners had previously held office or were prominent local figures.

The Governor Level: 48 Ran, 2 Won

Perhaps the most impressive independent victories came at the governor level. Out of 48 independent gubernatorial candidates, 2 won their counties — a 4.2% success rate. Winning a governor's race as an independent means defeating the organized machinery of Jubilee, ODM, and other parties in a county-wide election.

These two governors demonstrated that personal brand, track record, and community trust can overcome the disadvantage of running without a party. They governed without the legislative support structure that party governors enjoy, relying on cross-party coalitions in their county assemblies.

The Presidential Level: 3 Ran, 0 Won

Three independent candidates ran for president in 2017: Japheth Kavinga Kaluyu (16,482 votes, 0.11%), Michael Wainaina Mwaura (13,257 votes, 0.09%), and Joseph William Nthiga Nyagah (42,259 votes, 0.28%). Together, they received 72,000 votes — less than 0.5% of the total.

Winning the presidency as an independent is virtually impossible in Kenya's current political system. The constitutional requirement to win 50%+1 of votes and 25% in at least 24 counties means a candidate needs a nationwide coalition. No independent has the infrastructure to build one.

Why Most Independents Lose

A 3.1% success rate means 96.9% of independent candidates lost. The reasons are structural:

1. No party resources. Political parties provide campaign funding, vehicles, agents, and media access. Independents must fund everything themselves.
2. No polling agents. Parties deploy agents at every polling station to protect their votes. Most independents cannot afford agents at more than a fraction of stations in their constituency.
3. Voter loyalty to parties. Many Kenyans vote along party lines, especially in stronghold areas. An independent in a Jubilee or ODM stronghold starts with a structural disadvantage.
4. No coalition support. Party candidates benefit from the "coattail effect" — voters who come out for the presidential candidate also vote for the party's local candidates. Independents miss this boost entirely.
5. Legal and administrative hurdles. The Elections Act requires independents to collect a certain number of supporter signatures and pay deposits, creating barriers that party candidates can bypass.

Why Some Independents Win

Despite the odds, 125 independents won. The common factors among winners:

• Strong personal brand. Winners were well-known in their communities before the election.
• Previous office holders. Many had served as MCAs, MPs, or in other positions and retained voter loyalty.
• Rejected by parties. Some were popular aspirants who lost party nominations in disputed primaries. Their supporters followed them to the independent ticket.
• Well-funded. Independent winners tend to be wealthier than average candidates, able to self-fund their campaigns.
• Local issues. In some wards and constituencies, voters prioritised local issues over national party politics.

Independents Across the Board: Comparing Positions

The data shows a clear pattern: the more local the race, the better independents perform. At the MCA level (3.3% success rate), personal relationships matter most. At the MP level (2.5%), party structures start to dominate. At the governor level (4.2%), exceptional individuals can break through. At the presidential level (0%), the system is designed for parties.

Key Takeaways

1. 4,002 independent candidates ran in 2017 — about 1 in every 6 candidates was independent
2. Only 125 won (3.1%) — the odds are overwhelmingly against independents
3. 83.4% of independents ran for MCA — the ward level is the entry point for independent politics
4. 109 independent MCAs made them the 3rd-largest block in county assemblies
5. 2 independent governors won — proving party-free victories are possible at the highest county level
6. 0 independent presidential candidates have ever won in Kenya's modern history

For context on how parties performed in Parliament, see: How Jubilee Won 140 of 289 MP Seats. For ward-level diversity, see: The MCA Landscape: 41 Parties.

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