How Raila Lost Mt. Kenya: The Azimio Coalition's Fatal Miscalculation

In Kenyan electoral politics, there's an old axiom: whoever wins Mt. Kenya wins the presidency. With 5.8 million registered voters across the greater Mt. Kenya region — encompassing Kiambu, Murang'a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, and Embu — the region is the single largest voting bloc in the country. Raila Odinga's 2022 strategy was built on capturing it. He failed.

The Uhuru Factor: Endorsement Without Delivery

President Uhuru Kenyatta's public endorsement of Raila was supposed to be the game-changer. After the 2018 handshake that ended their political rivalry, Uhuru spent four years positioning Raila as his successor. The assumption was straightforward: Uhuru controlled the Mt. Kenya political machinery, and that machinery would deliver votes.

The results told a different story:

• Kiambu County: Ruto 72.3%, Raila 26.1% — in Uhuru's own backyard
• Murang'a County: Ruto 79.4%, Raila 19.5%
• Nyeri County: Ruto 76.8%, Raila 21.9%
• Kirinyaga County: Ruto 73.1%, Raila 25.6%
• Nyandarua County: Ruto 78.2%, Raila 20.5%

Across the five core Central Kenya counties, Raila managed just 23.7% of the vote — barely better than his 2017 performance when he had no Mt. Kenya running mate and no presidential endorsement.

Why Uhuru's Machine Broke Down

Several factors explain why the presidential endorsement didn't translate to votes:

1. The Handshake Resentment: Many Mt. Kenya residents felt betrayed by Uhuru's alliance with Raila, their longtime political opponent. The 2018 handshake was seen as a backroom deal that sidelined their interests, particularly Ruto's — who many in the region had supported since 2013.

2. Economic Pain: By 2022, the cost of living had skyrocketed. Fuel prices hit KES 177 per litre, maize flour topped KES 230 per 2kg packet, and the small-business economy that Mt. Kenya thrives on was struggling. Ruto's 'hustler' message resonated with the mama mbogas and bodaboda riders far more than Uhuru's political machinations.

3. Ruto's Ground Game: While Uhuru relied on traditional political brokers — governors, MPs, and chiefs — Ruto built a parallel network of church leaders, women's groups, and youth organizations. His wheelbarrow campaign distributed economic empowerment tools directly to constituents, bypassing the traditional patronage system.

The Martha Karua Gamble

Selecting Martha Karua as running mate was supposed to be Raila's masterstroke. A respected Kirinyaga politician with a reputation for integrity, Karua was meant to give Mt. Kenya voters a personal reason to back Azimio. But the strategy had critical flaws:

• Karua's political base in Kirinyaga had eroded — she lost her last electoral contest (the 2017 gubernatorial race) by a wide margin
• Her appeal was strongest among urban, educated voters who were already inclined toward Raila
• The 'Karua effect' was neutralized by Ruto's choice of Rigathi Gachagua — a Nyeri politician with deeper grassroots networks

In Kirinyaga County itself, Raila-Karua managed just 25.6% — a damning verdict on the running mate's ability to deliver her home county.

The Numbers Don't Lie

When you break down Mt. Kenya's contribution to the overall result, the scale of Azimio's miscalculation becomes clear:

• Total votes cast in greater Mt. Kenya: approximately 3.9 million
• Ruto's share: roughly 2.85 million votes (73%)
• Raila's share: roughly 1.0 million votes (26%)
• Net advantage to Ruto from Mt. Kenya alone: ~1.85 million votes

Raila's national margin of defeat was 233,211 votes. Mt. Kenya didn't just contribute to his loss — it defined it. Even if Raila had split the region 50-50 (which would have been historically unprecedented for a non-Kikuyu candidate), he would have gained roughly 900,000 additional votes, more than enough to overturn the result.

What This Means for 2027

The 2022 Mt. Kenya result demolished two myths: that presidential endorsements can deliver ethnic voting blocs, and that running mate selection alone can swing a region. Voters in Mt. Kenya made an independent economic calculation, and the 'hustler' message won.

For 2027, the dynamics shift dramatically. With Raila's passing in October 2025 and Gachagua's impeachment fracturing the Ruto-Mt. Kenya alliance, the region is once again up for grabs — but this time with no clear kingmaker.

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