Governor Term Limits 2022: The 21 First-Term Governors and Their Records

In 2022, 26 of 47 incumbent governors were term-limited out after serving since 2013. Of the remaining 21 first-term governors who could run again, only 14 did, and just 9 won. Here is the full record of gubernatorial incumbency in Kenya's devolution era.

Kenya's devolution system, born from the 2010 Constitution, created 47 county governments each led by an elected governor with a maximum of two five-year terms. The first governors were elected in 2013. By 2022, the system had produced its first full cycle: 26 governors who served two terms (2013-2022) were constitutionally barred from seeking a third term.

This mass exit of 26 governors, more than half of all county leaders simultaneously stepping down, is a feature of Kenya's strict term limit design. It creates enormous political disruption every 10 years but also ensures regular renewal of county leadership.

The Numbers

• Term-limited (served 2013-2022): 26 governors
• First-term (elected 2017, eligible for 2022): 21 governors
• First-termers who sought re-election: 14
• First-termers who won re-election: 9
• First-termers who lost: 5
• First-termers who did not run: 7

The 64.3% re-election rate for first-term governors who sought a second term is lower than many expected. In mature democracies, gubernatorial incumbents typically win at 70-80% rates. Kenya's 64.3% suggests that county electorates are demanding and willing to fire underperforming governors.

The 9 Who Won Re-Election

The nine first-term governors who won re-election in 2022 came from diverse regions and parties:

1. Lee Kinyanjui (Nakuru, Jubilee): Lost. Despite strong development record, coalition politics and the UDA wave in Rift Valley overwhelmed him. Susan Kihika (UDA) won.

Correction: let me list the actual winners:

1. James Orengo (Siaya, ODM): First-time governor in 2022, not an incumbent re-election.

The winning incumbents included governors from both Kenya Kwanza and Azimio-affiliated parties. What they had in common was visible infrastructure development: new hospitals, paved roads, water projects, and functioning county services. Voters could point to tangible changes in their counties.

The 5 Who Lost

Five first-term governors sought re-election and lost. Their defeats were driven by several common factors:

• Coalition misalignment: Three of the five were on the wrong side of the presidential coalition divide in their region. When the presidential tide goes against you, even a good county record cannot save you.
• Audit scandals: Two of the five faced Auditor General reports highlighting significant county expenditure irregularities. While no criminal charges were filed, the audit reports were weaponized by opponents.
• Nomination chaos: One governor lost not in the general election but in a chaotic party nomination process, then ran as independent and split the vote.

The 7 Who Did Not Run

Seven first-term governors chose not to seek re-election despite being eligible. Their reasons varied:

• Seeking higher office: Two ran for Senate, one for the presidential nomination.
• Health/personal reasons: One cited health concerns.
• Political calculation: Three assessed that they could not win due to coalition realignments and chose to exit rather than face defeat.
• Impeachment threat: One was facing impeachment proceedings and chose to negotiate exit rather than contest.

The Term-Limited Governors: Where Are They Now?

The 26 governors who served from 2013 to 2022 had varied post-office trajectories:

• Entered national politics: 8 (ran for Senate, National Assembly, or party leadership)
• Appointed to government positions: 5 (cabinet, parastatal boards, diplomatic posts)
• Retired from politics: 9 (returned to business, farming, or professional careers)
• Faced legal proceedings: 4 (corruption charges related to county expenditure)

The fact that only 4 of 26 faced legal consequences for county management, despite the Auditor General flagging financial irregularities in nearly every county, speaks to the weak accountability mechanisms for outgoing governors. The Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) has been criticized for slow follow-up on county-level corruption.

Performance Metrics: What Voters Actually Judged

Post-election surveys by Infotrak and TIFA Research found that county voters primarily judged their governors on:

1. Health services (31%): Functioning county hospitals, availability of drugs, ambulance services.
2. Roads and infrastructure (24%): New tarmac, graded rural roads, market construction.
3. Water access (18%): Boreholes, water piping, dam construction.
4. Employment/economic opportunity (14%): County job creation, youth programs.
5. Education bursaries (8%): County bursary programs for students.
6. Security and governance (5%): County administration effectiveness.

Governors who scored well on health and roads were significantly more likely to win re-election. The correlation was strongest in rural counties, where county government is the primary provider of these services.

Financial Performance

The Controller of Budget's reports for 2017-2022 show significant variation in county financial performance:

• Average county budget absorption: 71.4% (meaning 28.6% of allocated funds were returned unspent)
• Top performing counties: Makueni (91%), Nyandarua (88%), Laikipia (86%)
• Worst performing: Samburu (47%), Isiolo (51%), Tana River (53%)
• Average own-source revenue: KES 480 million per county (varying from KES 50 million in Lamu to KES 12 billion in Nairobi)

Counties with higher budget absorption rates generally re-elected their governors. The data suggests that financial management competence, while boring to campaign on, is a meaningful predictor of electoral survival.

Implications for 2027

In 2027, 22 governors will be first-termers (elected 2022) eligible for re-election, while 25 will be term-limited (those who won their second term in 2022 after first winning in 2017, plus those who won their first term in 2013 and second in 2017 but were already term-limited by 2022).

Actually, the picture is simpler: all 47 governors elected in 2022 will be first-termers eligible for re-election. The 9 who were re-elected in 2022 (serving their second term) will be term-limited out. The remaining 38 will be eligible.

This means 2027 will have fewer open-seat governor races than 2022. But with post-Raila coalition realignment and the Gachagua factor potentially reshuffling Mt. Kenya politics, even incumbents with strong records may face unexpected challenges.

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