2022 County Spotlight: Laikipia and Samburu — The Northern Rift Divide

Laikipia and Samburu share a border in Kenya’s northern Rift. They share similar landscapes — semi-arid rangeland, cattle country, and vast conservancies. But in 2022, they voted in opposite directions. Laikipia gave Ruto 70.46%. Samburu gave Odinga 59.33%. The gap between these neighbours is nearly 30 percentage points. This is one of Kenya’s most underreported political fault lines.

The difference comes down to demographics. Laikipia has a large Kikuyu population (who backed Ruto) alongside Maasai and other communities. Samburu is predominantly Samburu (a Maa-speaking pastoralist community) with significant Turkana and Somali minorities, communities that leaned Odinga.

The 2022 Presidential Results

Laikipia County:

• William Ruto (UDA): 119,142 votes (70.46%)
• Raila Odinga (Azimio): 48,908 votes (28.93%)
• George Wajackoyah: 602 votes (0.36%)
• David Mwaure: 432 votes (0.26%)
• Total valid votes: 169,084 | Rejected: 1,336 | Turnout: 64.73%

Samburu County:

• Raila Odinga (Azimio): 41,737 votes (59.33%)
• William Ruto (UDA): 28,329 votes (40.27%)
• George Wajackoyah: 220 votes (0.31%)
• David Mwaure: 62 votes (0.09%)
• Total valid votes: 70,348 | Rejected: 340 | Turnout: 70.65%

Laikipia’s 70,234-vote Ruto margin versus Samburu’s 13,408-vote Odinga margin. Cross the county boundary heading north, and the political reality flips. The Laikipia-Samburu border is one of the few places in Kenya where you can literally drive from a strong Ruto county into an Odinga county without passing through a transitional zone.

Why They Vote Differently

The explanation is demographic:

Laikipia’s population mix:

• Large Kikuyu farming communities in Nanyuki and Laikipia West — backed Ruto
• Maasai pastoralists in the southern areas — split between Odinga and Ruto
• Smaller Samburu and Turkana minorities — leaned Odinga

Samburu’s population mix:

• Samburu pastoralists (majority) — leaned Odinga through community leadership alignments
• Turkana minorities in the north — strongly Odinga
• Small Kikuyu and Somali populations in Maralal town — mixed

The The East African reported that Samburu’s political alignment in 2022 was influenced by the gubernatorial race and local community leaders who aligned with Azimio, pulling the presidential vote with them.

Historical Comparison: 2017 vs 2022

Laikipia:

• 2017: Kenyatta 177,772 (89.11%), Odinga 20,694 (10.37%)
• 2022: Ruto 119,142 (70.46%), Odinga 48,908 (28.93%)
• The Jubilee/UDA share dropped 18.65 percentage points

Samburu:

• 2017: Kenyatta 31,746 (49.64%), Odinga 31,615 (49.44%) — margin just 131 votes!
• 2022: Odinga 41,737 (59.33%), Ruto 28,329 (40.27%)
• Samburu shifted from a dead heat to a 19-point Odinga lead

Samburu’s 2017 result was one of the tightest in the country: Kenyatta won by just 131 votes. By 2022, Odinga had opened a 13,408-vote lead. Meanwhile, Laikipia went from an 89% Kenyatta stronghold to a 70% Ruto county — still strongly pro-Ruto, but with a significant Odinga vote that had more than doubled.

In both counties, the pattern is the same: the Mt. Kenya vote stayed with UDA (moving from Kenyatta to Ruto), but at a lower rate, while the pastoralist/minority vote moved toward Odinga.

Network Coverage and Infrastructure

Both counties face infrastructure challenges. The IEBC’s 2017 data showed:

• Laikipia: 102 of 531 stations (19.21%) had no network coverage
• Samburu: 94 of 284 stations (33.10%) had no network coverage; 73 (25.70%) on satellite

Samburu’s infrastructure challenge is more severe. A third of its stations had no connectivity, which means results must be physically transported to tallying centres. In a county where the 2017 margin was 131 votes, delayed results from offline stations could have changed the provisional tally multiple times.

Lessons for 2027

1. Adjacent counties are not allies. Laikipia and Samburu share a border but not a political identity. Campaigns must treat them as separate battlegrounds.
2. Samburu is volatile. It went from a 131-vote Kenyatta win in 2017 to a 13,408-vote Odinga win in 2022. It could swing again.
3. Laikipia’s Odinga vote is growing. From 10.37% to 28.93% in five years. If the trend continues, Laikipia becomes competitive rather than safe.

For provisions governing elections in pastoralist areas, see the Elections Act, 2011.

Laikipia and Samburu have over 800 polling stations, many in remote rangeland. Votrack’s USSD and SMS channels reach stations where web-based systems cannot. Request a demo and cover the northern Rift divide.