Presidential Vote Distribution: Mapping Strongholds from 2013 to 2022

Some counties have voted the same way in every election since 2013. Others have flipped dramatically. This analysis maps the strongholds, swing counties, and the counties that changed sides.

Kenyan presidential elections are often described as ethnic censuses. The narrative says that communities vote as blocs and the result is a mathematical certainty based on population numbers. But the data from three elections tells a more complex story. While some counties are indeed permanent strongholds, others show genuine volatility, and a significant number have changed their allegiance between elections.

To map this, we tracked how each county voted in 2013, 2017, and 2022 in terms of which candidate won the county. We then classified each county as a permanent stronghold (same side in all three elections), a flipped county (changed at least once), or a swing county (margins below 15 percentage points in at least one election).

County Vote Consistency: 2013 to 2022

The scatter plot reveals three clusters:

Permanent Kenyatta/Ruto strongholds: Counties that voted for Kenyatta in both 2013 and 2017, and then for Ruto in 2022. These include the entire Mt. Kenya bloc (Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Nyandarua, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru) and most of the Rift Valley (Kericho, Bomet, Nandi, Elgeyo/Marakwet, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru, Laikipia).

Permanent Odinga strongholds: Counties that voted for Odinga in all three elections. These include Luo Nyanza (Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori), most of the Coast (Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta), Ukambani (Machakos, Makueni, Kitui), and Western (Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia).

Flipped or swing counties: Nairobi went from Kenyatta to Odinga. Bungoma went from Odinga to Ruto. Narok and Kajiado flipped from Kenyatta to Odinga. Several North Eastern counties also flipped.

Counties That Flipped Between Elections

The most significant county flips between 2017 and 2022 were:

• Nairobi (2.4M voters): Kenyatta won 48.60% in 2017, but Odinga won 57.30% in 2022. The shift came from urban voter disillusionment with the outgoing Jubilee administration and strong Azimio campaigning in low-income areas.
• Bungoma (646K voters): Odinga won 67.98% in 2017, but Ruto won 63.16% in 2022. The Luhya community split, with Musalia Mudavadi's ANC bringing Bungoma voters into Kenya Kwanza.
• Narok (399K voters): Kenyatta won 52.98% in 2017, Odinga won 51.70% in 2022. The Maasai community shifted its primary allegiance.
• Kajiado (463K voters): Kenyatta won 57.17% in 2017, Odinga won 51.37% in 2022. Similar Maasai shift as Narok.
• Wajir (208K voters): Kenyatta won 50.97% in 2017, Odinga won 62.59% in 2022. North Eastern political realignment.
• Mandera (217K voters): Kenyatta won 82.92% in 2017, Odinga won 78.39% in 2022. The most dramatic flip by percentage.

These flips collectively involved over 4.3 million registered voters. The fact that this many voters live in counties that changed allegiance between elections undermines the narrative that Kenyan elections are purely ethnic calculations. Coalition building, candidate appeal, and local political alliances genuinely matter.

The Consistency Score

We calculated a consistency score for each county based on how much its vote share for the winning candidate varied across elections. A score of 100 means the county voted identically in every election. A score near 0 means massive swings.

The most consistent counties were the strongholds. Siaya gave the opposition 99.0% in 2017 and 98.6% in 2022, a swing of just 0.4 percentage points. Homa Bay was similarly consistent at 99.5% and 98.9%. Elgeyo/Marakwet gave the Rift Valley candidate 94.6% in 2017 and 96.9% in 2022.

The least consistent counties were the ones that flipped. Mandera went from 83% Kenyatta to 78% Odinga, a combined swing of roughly 80 percentage points in the margin. Bungoma went from 68% Odinga to 63% Ruto, a complete reversal.

According to the IEBC, Kenya had 47 counties in all three elections. Of these, approximately 30 voted consistently for the same side in all three elections. About 10 showed significant swings. And 7 flipped their allegiance at least once.

The Standard's analysis of the 2022 results highlighted the Bungoma flip as the single most significant county-level change, as it moved an entire Luhya sub-community from the opposition to the government coalition.

For analysis of specific swing counties, see our spotlights on Narok and Kajiado and Wajir. And for the overarching comparison between the two most recent elections, read 2022 vs 2017: How the Political Map Changed.

According to Kenya Law, election petitions have historically concentrated in swing counties where margins are small enough to challenge. The counties that flip are also the counties most likely to generate legal disputes.

History reveals the battleground. Votrack's cross-election comparison tools let political teams overlay results from 2013, 2017, and 2022 at the ward and polling station level. Identify exactly where the map is shifting. Request a demo for 2027.