Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

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Showing 1-12 of 220 posts

Garissa Field Note 1: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game
Garissa Field Note 1: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game

A county-grounded brief for Garissa using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regi...

Jun 09, 2026 2 min 3,348
MOMBASA: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Fastest Registration Growth)
MOMBASA: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Fastest Registration Growth)

Data-backed campaign playbook for MOMBASA: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents a...

Jun 09, 2026 2 min 8,068
Cabinet Casualties in 2007: A Voter Backlash Pattern
Cabinet Casualties in 2007: A Voter Backlash Pattern

A deeper 2007 brief built from validated project data points: presidential totals, parliamentary seat split, petition ba...

Jun 02, 2026 2 min 3,233
Maendeleo Chap Chap and Other Small Parties: Where They Won in 2017
Maendeleo Chap Chap and Other Small Parties: Where They Won in 2017

Beyond Jubilee and ODM, Kenya's 2017 election saw remarkable results from small parties. Maendeleo Chap Chap won a gover...

May 31, 2026 5 min 8,603
Mombasa Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027
Mombasa Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027

A county ballot-quality brief for Mombasa: rejection rate, turnout context, and practical fixes for campaigns ahead of 2...

May 25, 2026 2 min 3,799
KAKAMEGA: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Fastest Registration Growth)
KAKAMEGA: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Fastest Registration Growth)

Data-backed campaign playbook for KAKAMEGA: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents...

May 20, 2026 2 min 678
Murang'a Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027
Murang'a Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027

A county ballot-quality brief for Murang'a: rejection rate, turnout context, and practical fixes for campaigns ahead of...

May 19, 2026 2 min 10,395
Machakos Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027
Machakos Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027

A county ballot-quality brief for Machakos: rejection rate, turnout context, and practical fixes for campaigns ahead of...

May 13, 2026 2 min 6,358
Meru Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027
Meru Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027

A county ballot-quality brief for Meru: rejection rate, turnout context, and practical fixes for campaigns ahead of 2027...

May 07, 2026 2 min 5,750
Kakamega Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027
Kakamega Rejected Ballot Watch: Where Ballot Quality Could Decide 2027

A county ballot-quality brief for Kakamega: rejection rate, turnout context, and practical fixes for campaigns ahead of...

May 01, 2026 2 min 8,251
2007 Coalition Math: Small Swings, Massive Consequences
2007 Coalition Math: Small Swings, Massive Consequences

A deeper 2007 brief built from validated project data points: presidential totals, parliamentary seat split, petition ba...

May 01, 2026 2 min 11,955
NAIROBI CITY: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Fastest Registration Growth)
NAIROBI CITY: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Fastest Registration Growth)

Data-backed campaign playbook for NAIROBI CITY: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan age...

Apr 30, 2026 2 min 10,229