2022 County Spotlight: Kisii and Nyamira — The Gusii Region Split

The Gusii community gave the late Raila 64% but Ruto still got 34-38% — not a stronghold. This was one of the most interesting sub-regional stories of 2022.

Look at a map of the 2022 presidential results and you will see a block of deep red in Nyanza — counties that gave the late Raila Odinga 95-99% of their vote. Now look slightly to the east, at Kisii and Nyamira. The red is there, but it is noticeably lighter. The Gusii region voted for the late Raila, but it did so with far less enthusiasm than its Luo neighbours.

The numbers tell the story clearly. Kisii gave the late Raila 265,078 votes (65.80%) and Ruto 135,326 votes (33.60%). Nyamira gave the late Raila 129,025 votes (61.84%) and Ruto 78,356 votes (37.55%). Combine both counties and you get approximately 394,103 for the late Raila against 213,682 for Ruto — a 64.38% to 34.91% split.

Not Nyanza, Not Rift Valley — Somewhere in Between

The Gusii (Abagusii) community is ethnically and linguistically distinct from both the Luo and the Kalenjin, though the two counties sit geographically in the former Nyanza Province. This geographic location has historically pulled Gusii politics toward the Odinga orbit, but the cultural and economic ties with the Rift Valley have always created a counter-pull.

The chart shows the dramatic contrast. Homa Bay (98.93%) and Kisumu (97.44%) were essentially unanimous for the late Raila. Kisii and Nyamira were in a completely different category — competitive territory where one in three voters chose Ruto. According to the Nation, the Gusii region has historically been a swing area in Kenyan politics, never fully committing to any one political camp.

Where Did Ruto’s 34-38% Come From?

Ruto’s performance in the Gusii region was one of his most significant achievements outside his Rift Valley and Mt. Kenya base. Several factors drove this.

First, the economic connections. Many Gusii farmers and traders have deep links with the Rift Valley through the tea and sugarcane industries. Kericho and Bomet counties, which border Kisii and Nyamira, are strong Ruto territory. These cross-county economic ties influenced political allegiances.

Second, the Simeon Nyachae legacy. The late Nyachae, a former Finance Minister and one of the Gusii community’s most prominent political figures, had historically opposed Odinga. His political network, though diminished by 2022, left a residual anti-Odinga sentiment among older voters. The Standard reported that some of Nyachae’s former political lieutenants were active in Ruto’s UDA campaign in both counties.

Third, young voters. Ruto’s “hustler” narrative resonated with young Gusii entrepreneurs, particularly in Kisii town, which is one of Kenya’s most economically active mid-sized towns. The promise of bottom-up economic empowerment had genuine appeal in a community known for its business acumen.

Kisii vs Nyamira: The Internal Difference

While both counties are Gusii, they were not identical in their voting patterns. Nyamira was more competitive than Kisii. Ruto got 37.55% in Nyamira compared to 33.60% in Kisii — a gap of nearly four percentage points.

This likely reflects Nyamira’s smaller size and closer proximity to the Rift Valley. With 323,283 registered voters compared to Kisii’s 637,111, Nyamira is less than half the size. Smaller counties often have more concentrated political networks, and in Nyamira’s case, those networks had stronger Rift Valley connections.

Turnout also differed slightly. Kisii had a turnout of 63.92% while Nyamira managed 65.16%. Both were below the national average, suggesting that some Gusii voters — caught between two camps — simply stayed home rather than choose.

The Rejected Ballots Signal

Kisii had 4,391 rejected ballots out of 407,227 total ballots cast — a rejection rate of about 1.08%. Nyamira had 1,997 rejected ballots out of 210,648 total — a rate of 0.95%. Both rates were slightly above the national average of about 0.79%.

Higher rejected ballot rates in competitive counties often signal voter confusion or deliberate spoiling by voters who cannot decide between the candidates. In the Gusii context, this aligns with the narrative of a community that was genuinely torn.

The Minor Candidates

George Wajackoyah, whose roots-party platform had some appeal in Nyanza, got 1,678 votes in Kisii and 925 in Nyamira. David Waihiga Mwaure got 754 in Kisii and 345 in Nyamira. Combined, the minor candidates took approximately 3,702 votes from the two counties — not enough to be decisive but enough to indicate that some voters were dissatisfied with both major candidates.

What the Gusii Split Means for 2027

The Gusii region is arguably the most important swing territory in Nyanza. In a close national election, the difference between 65% and 55% for the opposition candidate in Kisii and Nyamira could mean tens of thousands of votes. Combined, these two counties have 960,394 registered voters — more than many individual counties in the Rift Valley or Mt. Kenya.

With the late Raila’s passing in October 2025, the Gusii region is even more up for grabs. The late Raila’s personal appeal — however limited it was among the Gusii compared to the Luo — still held the region in his column. Without that gravitational pull, Ruto could realistically push past 40% in both counties in 2027.

For the opposition, the Gusii region is a warning. If you cannot lock down 65%+ here, you are losing ground in what should be friendly territory. The next opposition candidate will need to invest heavily in Kisii and Nyamira rather than taking them for granted as part of the “Nyanza bloc.” They are not. For more on how neighbouring counties voted, see our Migori county spotlight.

Data-driven election monitoring for every county. Votrack tracks results in real time from all 47 counties and 46,229 polling stations. Request a demo and see how the Gusii region’s 1,400+ polling stations reported in 2022.