Kenya Election Insights

Data-driven analysis of Kenya's elections from 2007 to 2022

Showing 1-12 of 412 posts

Garissa Field Note 1: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game
Garissa Field Note 1: Mt. Kenya Shockwaves, By-Election Lessons, and the 2027 Ground Game

A county-grounded brief for Garissa using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regi...

Jun 09, 2026 2 min 3,348
MOMBASA: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Fastest Registration Growth)
MOMBASA: How turnout discipline can flip swing zones (Fastest Registration Growth)

Data-backed campaign playbook for MOMBASA: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents a...

Jun 09, 2026 2 min 8,068
Embu Coalition Memo 50: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Embu Coalition Memo 50: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Embu using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, registr...

Jun 08, 2026 2 min 10,880
Elgeyo/Marakwet Coalition Memo 49: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Elgeyo/Marakwet Coalition Memo 49: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Elgeyo/Marakwet using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressu...

Jun 07, 2026 2 min 9,278
2022 County Spotlight: Nandi and Baringo — Deep Rift Valley
2022 County Spotlight: Nandi and Baringo — Deep Rift Valley

Nandi (91.30% Ruto, 3rd highest nationally) and Baringo (80.69% Ruto) represent the deep Rift Valley vote. But the 11-po...

Jun 07, 2026 4 min 4,982
Busia Coalition Memo 48: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Busia Coalition Memo 48: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Busia using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regist...

Jun 06, 2026 2 min 1,665
Gender balance and turnout discipline: Data Signals Campaign Teams Should Not Ignore Before 2027
Gender balance and turnout discipline: Data Signals Campaign Teams Should Not Ignore Before 2027

A deeper demographic and operations brief on gender balance and turnout discipline with practical steps for 2027 electio...

Jun 06, 2026 2 min 1,965
Bungoma Coalition Memo 47: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Bungoma Coalition Memo 47: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Bungoma using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regi...

Jun 05, 2026 2 min 4,902
Bomet Coalition Memo 46: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Bomet Coalition Memo 46: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Bomet using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regist...

Jun 04, 2026 2 min 9,031
BUNGOMA: Predicting 2027 pressure points from 2022 numbers (Fastest Registration Growth)
BUNGOMA: Predicting 2027 pressure points from 2022 numbers (Fastest Registration Growth)

Data-backed campaign playbook for BUNGOMA: turnout trajectory, registration depth, margin risk, and how to plan agents a...

Jun 04, 2026 2 min 5,385
Baringo Coalition Memo 45: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
Baringo Coalition Memo 45: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for Baringo using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, regi...

Jun 03, 2026 2 min 4,698
West Pokot Coalition Memo 44: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit
West Pokot Coalition Memo 44: Broad-Based Politics After ODM's February 11, 2026 Exit

A county-grounded brief for West Pokot using 2013, 2017, and 2022 data to map 2027 risks: turnout, coalition pressure, r...

Jun 02, 2026 2 min 894